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HUBBELL INC (HUBB)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered adjusted EPS of $4.93, up 11% y/y, on net sales of $1.484B (+2% y/y); GAAP operating margin expanded 160 bps to 22.7% and adjusted operating margin to 24.4% .
- Revenue modestly missed consensus ($1.484B vs $1.507B*), while EPS and EBITDA significantly beat (Adj. EPS $4.93 vs $4.40*, EBITDA $384.6MM vs $347.9MM*) — strength in Grid Infrastructure and data center-exposed products offset weak Grid Automation/meters .
- Management raised FY25 outlook: diluted EPS to $16.25–$16.75 and adjusted EPS to $17.65–$18.15 (tax rate 22.0–22.5%; organic sales growth 4–6%; ~90% FCF conversion), reflecting price/productivity and FIFO accounting harmonization (+$0.30 first-half EPS impact) .
- Accounting change to FIFO reduced Q2 COGS by $29MM ($0.42/share) and 1H COGS by $20MM ($0.29/share), improving quarter-to-quarter margin matching amid cost inflation — a transparency and comparability catalyst .
- Board declared a $1.32 quarterly dividend payable Sept 15, 2025; near-term stock narrative: guidance raise, margin resilience despite tariffs/metals inflation, and data center demand tailwinds vs continued meter softness .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Grid Infrastructure organic sales +7% with high-teens orders in 1H; distribution returned to growth, supporting H2 trajectory (“we can say that the channel destock has concluded”) .
- Electrical Solutions organic +4% with margin expansion (Adj. OI +9%; adj. margin 22.5%), driven by data centers and “compete collectively” commercial alignment .
- Price/productivity exceeded cost inflation; management proactively implemented two price actions, expecting ~3 pts of FY25 price (“we feel we are ahead at this split second”) .
What Went Wrong
- Grid Automation sales down ~13% as larger AMI projects rolled off; sequential stability only at a lower base, with growth expected to resume in Q4 .
- Tariff and metals inflation (copper/steel/aluminum) added cost pressure; price covers OP dollar-for-dollar but is “not margin-friendly” in the near term .
- Revenue slightly below consensus (–$23MM vs*), reflecting metering weakness and timing of price realization; organic growth only +2% for the quarter .
Financial Results
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Hubbell delivered double digit adjusted earnings per share growth in the second quarter, driven by strong organic growth in Grid Infrastructure and Electrical Solutions, as well as year-over-year margin expansion.” — Gerben Bakker, CEO .
- “Our adoption of a unified FIFO-based inventory accounting standard… creates a better match of timing of higher costs and pricing… $29 million decrease in COGS in Q2 and $20 million decrease in 1H.” — Bill Sperry, CFO .
- “Data centers continues to be a very significant contributor… margins up a point to 22.5%… consistent multi-year momentum in the electrical segment.” — Bill Sperry .
- “Price and productivity exceeded cost inflation across both segments in the quarter.” — Gerben Bakker .
Q&A Highlights
- Distribution recovery and sustainability: Channel destock “has concluded”; distribution mid-single-digit growth seen as sustainable; easier comps in H2 .
- Tariffs and metals: Price actions ahead of tariffs; ~2 pts price in 1H and ~3 pts FY; OP dollars neutral but margin-dilutive; copper/steel/aluminum covered via pricing .
- Grid Automation trajectory: Sequentially flat for three quarters; expecting growth in Q4 as comps ease; low-to-mid single-digit growth off lower base in 2026 .
- H2 margin dynamics: Mix favorable; tariffs offset with price; higher restructuring in Q3; better y/y margin performance likely in Q4 .
- Capital deployment: H1 repurchases $225MM; closed a small bolt-on for water utility enclosures; pipeline active across T&D/data centers/light industrial .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025: Adjusted EPS beat by ~$0.53 ($4.93 vs $4.40*); revenue missed by ~$23MM ($1,484.3MM vs $1,507.3MM*); EBITDA beat by ~$36.8MM ($384.6MM vs $347.9MM*) — highlighting margin resilience despite topline miss .
- FY 2025 EPS consensus is 18.20*, above updated guidance range ($17.65–$18.15); models may need to balance higher price realization and FIFO benefit against continued tariff/metals inflation and metering softness .
- With ~3 pts FY price and high-teens T&D orders, consensus revenue ($5.84B*) versus company’s 4–6% organic growth suggests estimates near the top of guidance are plausible if Grid Automation stabilizes and H2 mix remains favorable .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mixed print with quality: modest revenue miss but strong EPS/EBITDA beat; margin execution and mix (T&D components, data centers) are carrying the story .
- Narrative catalysts: unified FIFO improves comparability and margin timing; guidance raise (+$0.30) despite tariff/metal headwinds underpins confidence .
- H2 setup: High-teens T&D orders, distribution growth, and incremental price realization point to stronger volumes/mix in Q4; watch Q3 for tariff absorption and higher restructuring spend .
- Risk monitor: Grid Automation/meters remains the swing factor; sequential stability at lower base with expected Q4 return to growth — track RFPs and project awards .
- Capital allocation: Ongoing buybacks ($225MM H1) and active M&A pipeline (utility/data center adjacency) support EPS durability and strategic positioning .
- Trading implications: Favor near-term on margin resilience and guidance raise; tactically monitor Q3 margins (tariff-induced) and Q4 volume/mix inflection for upside to the high end of guidance .
- Medium-term thesis: Structural tailwinds from grid modernization/electrification and data center build-outs, combined with commercial unification and productivity initiatives, support sustained margin expansion and cash generation .
Non-GAAP and accounting notes: Adjusted EPS excludes amortization and transaction costs; FIFO change reduced Q2 COGS by $29MM ($0.42/share) and 1H by $20MM ($0.29/share). Guidance based on 22.0–22.5% adjusted tax rate and ~$20MM restructuring & related investment; expected ~90% FCF conversion **[48898_e5dc982ba235429f97592c2015239e5b_0]** **[48898_e5dc982ba235429f97592c2015239e5b_2]** **[48898_e5dc982ba235429f97592c2015239e5b_3]** **[48898_e5dc982ba235429f97592c2015239e5b_18]**.